Twelve months of the year, Hollywood releases a bunch of crappy movies designed to make money. The last two or three months, though still filled with crap, also have a significant amount of prestigious films, that cost the same bloated amount. It is often acceptable for these films to gross significantly less than their peers – ah, the privilege of art! Anyway, Hollywood has the Oscars to increase the mainstream visibility of these films. The more nominations, the better your film is. Now us arty snobby types are aware of these films throughout the year – from the casting to the production to the festival release- it is pretty easy to guess who or what is getting nominated in about July. But after Christmas, when the real shit dump of January and Febuary begins, as well as the nominations, studios pump more advertising money into these prestige films so more regular folks go and see them (Would anyone in Kansas drag their husbands to see Milk unless it was Oscar nominated?) This whole fun cycle exists so these films aren’t complete failures, and studios can claim a higher purpose to excuse things like Kangaroo Jack. This is how the blood sucking leeches at Miramax operated for twenty-five years. Sucking up independent films that they know they could milk during this season, and remaining a Best Picture producing machine. How am I aware of this vast conspiracy? I read Entertainment Weekly for nine years in my adolescence. You just kind of figure out that the Weinstein’s climbed out of some flaming hellhole around 1978 after three or so years of following the industry.
But don’t worry, this isn’t going to be a big rant about the industry and my numerous subsuming conspiracy theories. Lord no! I was just providing you some necessary background on my position before belaboring you wiiiiiiiiiith- an Oscar Prediction piece! First I will tell you, who should win, and then I will tell you who will in. Sometimes they are one and the same. Let’s get STARTED!
Best Supporting Actress
Let’s thin this annual crap-shoot out right off the bat. Cruz and Davis have no chance. Cruz could’ve won for Volver, and the Academy rarely rewards Allen’s work these days. I have no idea who Viola Davis is, and I don’t feel like wikipediaing the plot of Doubt and pretending to you that I have seen it (I won’t do that with any movie.) I haven’t seen it. I’m not interested in paying too much at the theatre. This speaks poorly to the movies chances in this category and most others . I don’t need to speak about Amy Adams then. This leaves Tomei and Henson.
Tomei has a decent shot, though Jack Palance has already rewarded her with one statuette. I still wish he gave that award to Billy Crystal or Daniel Stern or even Jon Lovitz! Personally, I loved The Wrestler. It was the best movie I have seen all year. Unfortunately, these kind of films are usually rewarded with acting awards, instead of Best Picture awards. Tomei wasn’t really too memorable in the film, but her character provided a necessary balance and longing for the script to truly work- and for the last ten minutes to be as powerful as they were. I actually preferred her scenes outside of the strip club, and I am a big fan of Marisa Tomeis tits. (Ever seen Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead? Except for the first three minutes – don’t. Awful film.)
This award shouldn’t go to the best actress in a supporting role, the overacting woman who’s third billed or whatever, but to the person who makes the film itself better, and not her visibility in it. That would obviously be Tajari P. Henson. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button hinged on his adoptive mother caring for him, it needed someone to truly care for the movie to escape from the first act. Henson did all that and more – she was the emotional core of the movie until Blanchett’s character became more prominent. I was more pained by her characters outcome than anyone else.
Who Should Win – Henson
Who Will Win – Adams
Best Supporting Actor
Hoffman is out, same reason as above. I’ve heard from everyone that Shannon may be the best thing in anything all year, but it scares me Road only has this one nomination, and I’d be surprised if he siphoned enough votes from you-know-who. I really dug Brolin as Dan White, he gave the character more depth than the documentary did, and that wasn’t because of Van Sant. I would be satisfied if he walked away with this. Downey Jr., he was hilarious in Tropic Thunder (My girlfriend and I still rehash the “Full Retard” scene,) and this wasn’t even his best performance of the year. But this isn’t a typical comedy rewarding category. Especially in a year with one heavy favorite.
Ledger’s performance went above and beyond. It made the movie into something more than a supherhero/action movie. It didn’t sugarcoat anarchist the way V For Vendetta did. I watched this film more than twice simply to rewatch Ledger. The Academy always rewards method acting, and actors who do something especially big to prepare for the role – losing gaining a significant amount of weight, changing their physical appearance, being a bad guy for once, not going Full Retard but definetley part retard. It’ll be interesting to see if the Academy will go as far to “reward” an actor who got so into the role that he locked himself into a hotel room for weeks, did a shit-ton of drugs (presumably) and died. The academy is in a situation without precedent- do they reward the guy who played the Joker, when, as I posit, that playing the Joker killed the guy? Whatever happens, I hope Michelle Williams isn’t at the performance, or at least they are nice enough to leave the camera off of her whenever the obligatory mention(s) happen. And a final food for thought: What would have the reaction been like if Ledger died in a similar situation at a time considerably later than the release, instead of considerably before. It is irrefutable that his death increased the hype for the film as well as the performance. Everyone will pay to watch a ghost walk. I wonder if the praise would have been so immediate and unanimous.
Who Should Win – Ledger
Who Will Win – Ledger
Best Actress
Hathaway has a shot, but her buzz waned, then completely died, after Bride Wars. I can’t even consider Jolie as anything more than a movie star, that the and the fact that I have an allergy to Eastwood directed films, all indulgent, serious-in-dark-tones crap to me, doesn’t really help her case. That and the fact it came out in July. And it’s called Changeling. It sounds like an album title by some crappy indie rock band.
Never heard of Leo or Frozen River. Meryl Streep has enough nominations and awards, in that movie I haven’t seen. She could win. She’s fucking Meryl Streep, right? Anyway, Winslet has been nominated and lost unjustly too many times, but then again the Academy has never been a bastion or purveyor of what is just or right in the world. But it’s her time. And everyone would love to reward a Nazi turned cougar. At least I would.
Who Should Win – Winslet
Who Will Win- Winslet
Best Actor
- Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
- Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
- Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
- Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
- Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)
This is probably the only close (and interesting) race in the whole crop this year. I’m throwing Langella out of the running because he’s doing something tough. 1) He’s playing a role he has already done on stage, which was garnered which critical attention and awards already. 2) He’s playing a historical character, one already subject to much political scrutiny, but already exposed to sufficient film time as well whether he has been on the screen or off of it (All The President’s Men, Dick, Nixon.) 3) He’s in a Howard movie. I hate Howard movies. They are all resolutely over-praised without a significant amount of substance. And yes, I am including A Beautiful Mind. Once you find out that dude is imaginary, shit all goes downhill. And I don’t care if I spoiled that movie, it isn’t worth your time. The only reason Crowe won the Oscar for Gladiator is because everyone knows he should’ve won for The Insider. That was the only reason he won. Yes, this shit is all cyclical. People get awarded Oscars to remedy previous injustices, and in doing so, current nominees get screwed only to get remedied later on, screwing those later hypothetical nominees. It’d be a lot easier to give the award to the person who did the best job in their performance that year, instead of whoever “deserves” it. Am I making any sense? So ANYWAY, Langella won’t win. I don’t remember why, but it might be because it grossed like half a million dollars the weekend before the Oscars, and the guy playing Frost creeps the shit out of me. Not good. Bottom line: Fuck Ron Howard. But: I like Frank Langella. He’s the man in Dave.
ANYWAY, the other nominees. Pitt was good in Button, but the make-up did most of the acting. And unfortunately, he may have the same problem as Jolie, as being seen constantly as a movie star instead of an actor. It was only 3/4 of the way through when I started thinking, “What’s going to happen to Brad Pitt?” instead of “What’s going to happen to Benjamin Button?” Don’t see this one happening. I have my hopes for Jenkins, I am a big SFU fan, and I just watched this one last night with my girly. Jenkins is phenomenal. Jenkins brings a nerdy life, and understandable distance to this character that makes what he goes through understandable. It’s regrettable that this film is awarded merely with the nomination for actor, as surprising it may have been to most people, when the writing and directing of Tom McCarthy is as good if not better. Bottom line: He was the character out of this list that I cared the most about.
This leaves the two heavyweights: Penn and Rourke.
I’ll start with Penn. The Life and Times may be hands down my favorite documentary ever. Regardless to say tempered my expectations, and actually decided to see the movie, under my girlfriends wise guidance to hold my judgment until I see it, and appreciate it as a seperate piece of art, yada yada yada, and I did that, and I seriously enjoyed the film. But something about Penn bothered me. The performance itself was fantastic, but the overall conception of the portrayal, as sort of cutsey and sunshine and smiles, sort of betrayed the work Milk himself did. And this isn’t Penn’s fault by any means, so I shouldn’t hold against his performance. The best way to state my feelings was written in a Newsweek review in November. (http://www.newsweek.com/id/171189) Paraphrased: Van Sant does not have rage in his color palette. Perfectly stated. To portray the life of Harvey Milk, there needs to be rage in his loss, anger at the failure of the system he changed, there needs to be something that happens when he dies besides a fucking candlelit march, regardless of how sweet it is. They sterilized the power of his death by bringing it up right away, which also worked to it’s favor, people who were unaware weren’t surprised, and people who were aware were not waiting for it. But ultimately it hurts the story, that what happened with White is delegated to the denouement and then credits roll. This only supports the failure of the system by not highlighting it as well as the documentary did. It may be unfair to compare the two, but the film would not exist, at least with A-List Hollywood players, without the documentary. And all this hurts Sean Penn, at least in my snobby judgmental opinion.
This leaves Rourke. Enough has been said about him. A transformation. Redemption. Wonderful. A performance for the ages. Lots of hyperbole. He’s good. The movie is better. But he wounded the industry with his choices earlier in his career. And the Oscars are more of a celebration of the industry than it is a celebration of great performance and films. Don’t be shocked if Rourke’s comeback film (Not Sin City, hehe,) is rewarded with the nomination and subsequent supporting role in a prestigious film offers. I’m not saying it should happen, but don’t be shocked. But everyone loves a comeback story. And see the film if you haven’t, especially on the big screen. Even if you aren’t an adolescent wrestling nut. It’s always good to see the Blue Meanie still getting work.
Who Should Win – Jenkins/Rourke
Who Will Win – Penn
Best Director
- David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Opie Cunningham – Frost/Nixon
- Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
- Stephen Doyle – The Reader
- Gus Van Sant – Milk
If they fork the statuette to Boyle for his totally medicore feel-good gangsteresque film, people are going to be surprised when a bunch of white dudes walk onto for a “foreign” film (it’s British, member!) which many people mistakenly think is a genuine Bollywood flick, and was financied, produced and totally genuinely Indian, lots of people will feel cheated. Which they kind of should. Boyle is totally banking off these cute kids, and manipulating the global feel of the film to make it something unique. Which it isn’t. I liked it alright, but it didn’t really take any chances. There is some mundane symbolism, and a brief conversation could be had afterwards regarding fate vs. coincidence, which is really just an exchange about three phrases long, and that one girl is very hot, which is all it really takes to win Best Director, I guess. And too many cuts and fuzzy angles. In that case the award should really go to the director of Cloverfield. I am dead serious. And I like(d?) Danny Boyle. But that may because I have never seen The Beach. I don’t really like British people honestly for that matter. Except for Stephen Frears. ANWYAY.
This one should and will go to Fincher. It was genuinely artistic, and not like some slobbering half-retarded dog trying to be artistic, it just simply was. It was beautifully shot, but that may be the reward to the cinematographer, it must be nominated, I’m not even going to check. Basically if you’ve seen it, you know what I’m talking about. Best movie I have seen in years. I’m actually going to buy it on DVD, which is something I NEVER do. It doesn’t hurt that I have loved everything Fincher has made. Except Zodiac. Ugh.
Best Picture
- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Frost/Nixon
- Slumdog Millionaire
- The Reader
- Milk
Milk is out of the running according to my reasons above, same with Slumdog Millionaire, a truly average film that people will fucking realize in a few years. Frost/Nixon is an adaptation of a play based on an interview, and the Opie factor nixes it, he makes shit. This leaves The Reader and Button. Reader is too dark and sexy, like everything Winslet does now, thank god, to be rewarded here if at all. It’s Button baby, the only movie with a memorable message that could remain entertaining for nearly three hours. It’s damn old-fashioned unpretentious American art. It’ll lose probably because people aren’t excited about Milk anymore, and because people eat up Slumdog because people are stupid/not as critical and smarmy as me.
Should Win – Button
Will Win – Milk /Slumdog
